Deltek Acumen 8.6 Online Help

Using the Help Search
Using the Help Search
  • Phrase:Returns all topics that contain the exact phrase in the search criteria. Use quotation marks around the phrase.
    Ex."system administration"
  • And:Returns all topics that contain all the words in the search criteria, in any combination. Insert a plus sign between all words in the search criteria.
    Ex.system + administration
  • Or:Returns all topics with any combination of words in the search criteria. This is the default.
    Ex.system administration
For more information:Searching Online Help

Monte Carlo Simulation Engine

Acumen uses a Monte Carlo simulation of risk. This involves the use of a random number generator for values between your defined ranges and is the most common approach to schedule risks assessment.

For each risk, you provide a likelihood (probability) range and cost/schedule impact ranges. When you run risk analysis, you set the number of simulations, for example, 1,000. For each simulation, Acumen generates a random value within your ranges and use those values for the simulation.

Deltek recommends that you run thousands of simulations after your model is set up. The more simulations you run, the more values tested and Acumen can produce a statistically good result.

For example:

You have one risk with a "Likely" probability (41% - 60%).

For simulation 1, Acumen generates a random value in the range of 41% to 60% using a standard random number generating algorithm, for example, 47%.

The same approach is used with the impact ranges you specified for the risk. If you chose a Schedule Impact of Medium (60d) and the Low is set to 40d, the implied impact range is between 41d and 60d. Acumen generates a random value in this range, for example, 53d.

Acumen now multiplies the impact and the probability: (47% * 53d) = an impact of 24.9d for the risk on this run.