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Progress and Duration Probability

By conducting risk analysis on projects that have already recorded progress, you can accurately gauge the reliability of the remainder of the project schedule.

How Open Plan treats the effect of project progress on duration probability depends on the project status:

  • For unprogressed projects, Open Plan applies the specified distribution probability information for activity duration (that is, the distribution shape and parameters) to the original duration.
  • After progress has been recorded, risk analysis processing is applied only to the remaining duration of the activity. Open Plan calculates this remaining duration from information entered on the Activity Progress dialog box as follows:
    • If the activity is complete: If an activity is complete, the remaining duration of the activity is considered to be zero. There is no need to sample from the original duration probability distribution.
    • If remaining duration is entered: If a remaining duration has been entered on the Activity Progress dialog box, Open Plan uses this value and no sampling is done.
    • If percent complete is entered: If a percent complete has been entered on the Activity Progress dialog box, Open Plan samples the original duration and multiplies each value by:

      100 - P / 100

      where p is the value entered in the percent complete field.

    • If elapsed duration is entered: If an elapsed duration has been entered in the Activity Progress dialog box, Open Plan samples the original duration and subtracts the value in the elapsed duration field from each duration sample. If this subtraction results in a negative value, the remaining duration is taken as zero and the activity is considered complete for the purposes of risk analysis.
    • If only an actual start date is entered: If the only information on the Activity Progress dialog box is an actual start date, Open Plan calculates the elapsed duration as the number of work days or periods between the actual start date and the status date (Time Now). Open Plan then samples the original duration and subtracts the calculated elapsed duration from each field. If this subtraction results in a negative value, the remaining duration is taken as zero and the activity is considered complete for the purposes of risk analysis.

Related Topics

Related Procedures