Deltek Open Plan Help

Using the Help Search
Using the Help Search
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    Ex."system administration"
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    Ex.system + administration
  • Or:Returns all topics with any combination of words in the search criteria. This is the default.
    Ex.system administration
For more information:Searching Online Help

Risk Tab

This tab allows you to specify the probability distribution information about the duration of an activity. This information is used in risk analysis calculations.

For example, assume that you suspect an activity will take 10 days, but you want to allow for an uncertainty of plus or minus 2 days. You would define the probable range of durations with the following values:

Field Value
 Optimistic 8 days
 Pessimistic 12 days
 Most likely 10 days

While you could assign any shape to the probability distribution, you would most likely assign it the Normal distribution.

You cannot enter probability information for any type of activity that uses a calculated duration – subprojects, external subprojects, and hammocks.

Contents

Field Description
ID, Desc., Status, Duration

These fields are common to all tabs. See Common Fields for a description of these fields.

Duration

Open Plan provides controls for defining the probable range of durations for the activity.

Field Description
Shape

This field allows you to select the shape of the probability distribution as follows:

  • Beta: probable outcomes cluster around the mode value of the distribution. Outcomes at the extreme values of the distribution are very unlikely.
  • Normal: probable outcomes cluster symmetrically around the center of the distribution.
  • Triangular: probable outcomes cluster around the mode value of the distribution. Outcomes close to minimum and maximum values of the distribution still possess a significant probability.
  • Uniform: each outcome is equally likely.

In addition, you can select None if you do not want to assign a probability distribution shape.

Optimistic

This is the minimum estimated duration for the activity.

Pessimistic

This is the maximum estimated duration for the activity.

Key Activity

This field allows you to designate the activity as a key activity. For key activities, the program stores the most detailed risk analysis information possible.

To avoid creating an unmanageably large output file when risk analysis is performed, keep the number of key activities to a minimum. It is recommended that you flag no more than a dozen or so key activities per project.

Probability of Occurrence

Enter a value from 0 to 100 as a weight factor to indicate the probability that the activity exists at all.

For example, assume you have the following three activities:

Activity Probability of Occurrence
A: Write Software 100
B: Test Software 100
C: Fix Software 20

Activities A and B will always happen, but we might judge that there is only a 20% chance that following testing, we have to go back and fix the software. All regular Open Plan features ignore this field (and always consider all tasks) except Risk Analysis, which would only consider activity C 20% of the time. If Risk Analysis chooses to ignore the task on any given iteration, then any successors of C are deemed to follow immediately on from B (as if C had zero duration).

Related Procedures