Risk Analysis Operations
You can perform a risk analysis of a project at any time. In many ways, the risk analysis function in Open Plan is similar to the time analysis process.
Activities are sorted according to project logic and then subjected to a forward and backward pass to establish the earliest and latest dates for each activity.
In risk analysis, however, the process of calculating the early and late dates for each activity is based on a sampling of the probable durations. This sampling is repeated many times in order to build up a statistical picture of the probable outcomes of the project based on the combinations of the activities’ individual durations.
Unlike time analysis, the resulting dates and values for early dates, late dates, and activity floats are not calculated as single, deterministic values. Instead, statistical means and standard deviations are used to express these values.
Another statistical measure calculated for each activity during risk analysis is a “criticality index.” This index represents the percentage of simulation trials that resulted in the activity being placed on the critical path.
Open Plan provides two ways to perform risk analysis on a project:
- The Risk Analysis dialog box
- The Perform Risk Analysis button on the Processes tab
Each time you perform risk analysis using either the Risk Analysis dialog box or the Perform Risk Analysis button, Open Plan creates a session log file that records any system or error messages issued during the operation. Open Plan saves the file (Opp_risk.log) and enables you to examine its contents at the conclusion of each session.